Counterpoint's Japan Weekly Smartphone Tracker showed cumulative iPhone 17e sales reached 1.17 million units during the first seven weeks after launch, down 9.8% from the iPhone 16e over the same period.Early Sales Beat ExpectationsThe report said the iPhone 17e outperformed its predecessor during the first two weeks following launch, reflecting stronger-than-expected initial demand. However, sales volumes fell behind the iPhone 16e starting in week four.Counterpoint said the slowdown does not necessarily indicate weaker product competitiveness. Instead, the research firm attributed the softer trend to a difficult comparison against the iPhone 16e, which benefited from unusually strong replacement demand."While this may appear to signal weakening performance, it is more accurately attributed to the high base effect created by the 16e rather than any deterioration in product competitiveness," the report said.Apple iPhone 16e Benefited From Replacement CycleCounterpoint described the iPhone 16e as a "demand-clearing" model in Japan because it attracted a large wave of upgrades from older iPhone SE users, particularly owners of the 2020 and 2022 models.The report added that the iPhone 16e also gained traction as the most affordable entry point into Apple Intelligence, helping accelerate replacement demand in a short period.Because the iPhone 17e launched only one year later, fewer users were due for an upgrade cycle, limiting repeat demand.Counterpoint said replacement demand in Japan could gradually recover around 2027, supported by the country's widespread two-year trade-in programs.Earnings & Analyst OutlookLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 30, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.