Treasury yields dropped sharply after the Memorial Day weekend as traders priced in something that seemed unthinkable three months ago: a potential end to the US-Iran conflict.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell between 6 and 9 basis points, settling in a range around 4.35% to 4.59%. That move, combined with a 6-8% plunge in oil prices, sent a clear signal that markets believe diplomacy might actually be gaining traction. For crypto investors, the spillover effect was immediate. Bitcoin rallied toward $82,000 as risk appetite surged across asset classes.
What’s driving the shift
The catalyst is straightforward. President Donald Trump indicated on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran had reached their final stages. Reports suggest the two sides are working through a one-page memorandum, with plans that include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.
Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed it was actively reviewing the latest US proposal. That confirmation matters more than Trump’s posts alone, because it signals both sides are at least publicly acknowledging progress rather than posturing for domestic audiences.
