The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is key to crude oil prices, as the waterway, which is 24 miles wide at its narrowest point, is responsible for over a fifth of the global crude oil supply chain. Here’s when the Strait would reopen, according to bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket Traders Weigh In
Traders on Polymarket on Tuesday thought there was a 40% chance that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen before June 30th, 2026, while there was a 63% chance that the Strait would reopen by July 31st, 2026 and an 84% chance of traffic returning to normal by the end of the year, the trade suggests.
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Kalshi Bets On Strait Reopening By The End Of The Year
