7% chancePolymarket$23,356,221 Vol.$23,356,221 Vol.Dec 31, 2026Earn 4%7% chancePolymarket$23,356,221 Vol.$23,356,221 Vol.Dec 31, 2026Earn 4%This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan, favoring continued coercive measures such as military exercises, air and maritime incursions, and economic pressure instead. This assessment aligns with ongoing diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit focused on trade without triggering escalatory signals, and Taiwan's consistent emphasis on maintaining the cross-strait status quo. Traders reflect these developments in the 92.5% implied probability against invasion by end-2026, viewing the risks of amphibious operations and potential U.S. involvement as significant barriers absent major shifts in Beijing's strategy or Taiwanese actions.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETVolume$23,356,221End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedJul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
