This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US policy signals have reinforced trader expectations against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027. In May 2026, President Trump cautioned Taipei against moves toward independence and described arms sales as potential negotiating leverage with Beijing, while the Pentagon paused a $14 billion weapons package to prioritize Middle East needs. Taiwan’s legislature approved a $25 billion special defense budget the same month to bolster its capabilities, yet Chinese activities have centered on air and maritime incursions, blockade-style drills, and political outreach to opposition parties ahead of the 2028 election rather than preparations for offensive operations. US intelligence assessments continue to note the absence of a fixed PRC timeline or invasion plan, favoring sustained coercion over kinetic action, which aligns with the 91.5% implied probability that no clash will occur by the end of 2026.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETVolume$1,812,123End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedNov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
