Kevin Warsh didn’t get a gentle welcome. The new Federal Reserve Chair inherited a bond market that hasn't looked this hostile on the swearing-in day since Alan Greenspan took over the same helm in August of 1987.
The 30-year yields were at 5.17% while the 10-year hit 4.65%. His response? Declare AI a “significant disinflationary force” and essentially wave the green flag for an aggressive rate-cutting cycle.
Markets heard him. The question is whether he’s read the whole room — or just the part that confirms the thesis.
The Overlooked Hydraulic Problem
However, the treasury market doesn't follow narratives – it is dealing with a different reality, including giant federal deficits, heavy issuance, and a bond market that increasingly refuses to take soothing guidance at face value.
