This 2008 'train wreck' oil scenario could unfold if Hormuz isn't opened by end of August

A previous version of this report misstated the Goldman Sachs estimate of 2026 capital spending in artificial intelligence. The correct figure is $765 billion. The story has been corrected. By Joy Wiltermuth

'Oil spikes don't cause recessions alone - they detonate existing fragilities,' says Rapidan Energy Group

There's a new warning from the commodity market about the risks of a delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A scenario where the crucial Persian Gulf waterway remains mostly closed through the end of August would further deplete global Brent crude supplies and increase the odds of a "2008 train wreck scenario."

That's the view of Rapidan Energy Group, which was founded by Bob McNally, a former White House energy adviser to President George W. Bush. McNally also worked as a hedge-fund strategist at Tudor Investment Corp.