Iran faces political upheaval as Raisi's death triggers leadership changes

## Market Snapshot

The market assessing the potential fall of the Iranian regime by June 30 is currently priced at 4.2% YES, remaining stable from previous days. Meanwhile, the market predicting no head of state in Iran by the end of 2026 shows a 2.6% YES probability, indicating a slight decrease compared to 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The reported death of President Raisi and subsequent political upheaval appears to increase speculation on regime instability. – The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as a successor suggests a possible consolidation of power, indicating decreased likelihood of a leaderless Iran. – Market pricing reflects growing uncertainty in Iran’s political landscape, consistent with heightened potential for significant changes.

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