Trump’s about-face — 5,000 troops to Poland just weeks after ordering 5,000 out of Europe — left NATO allies “bewildered” at the Helsingborg summit. Germany’s Q1 GDP was confirmed at +0.3% q/q, exports +3.3%, investment −1.5%. UK retail sales tumbled 1.3% in April, the sharpest drop in nearly a year. Ukraine struck the Syzran refinery in a campaign that has cut Russian oil-export capacity by some 40%. Lagarde continued the “global-euro” push ahead of June 4 ECB. Eutelsat extended its 22% rally. Today’s Europe intelligence brief tracks six decisions converging on the Friday tape.

01 · EU / NATO — Trump About-Face: 5,000 Troops to Poland Just Weeks After Ordering 5,000 Out

NATO allies and defence officials expressed bewilderment Friday at US President Trump’s decision to send 5,000 troops to Poland just weeks after he ordered 5,000 pulled out of Europe — reversing weeks of administration statements about reducing the US military footprint. “It is confusing indeed, and not always easy to navigate,” Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard told reporters at the Helsingborg ministerial summit she was hosting, where Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary General Rutte met allied counterparts.