Money markets are now pricing an ECB rate hike against the bank’s data-dependent hold. Ukrainian strikes hit a Russian bomber airbase near Voronezh overnight as the IMF mission begins work in Kyiv. The EU-Mercosur trade deal is running in provisional application, opening a direct channel to Latin America. A German-Dutch rapid-deployment structure for the Baltics is advancing. Today’s Europe intelligence brief covers the continent’s finance, markets, economy, politics, and defence tape.
European Central Bank
Money Markets Now Price a Hike Against the Bank’s Hold
Money-market traders are pricing an ECB rate hike in the coming months, ending the era of low rates. The shift follows a week of hawkish remarks and signs of faster euro-area recovery.
Polymarket bettors still point to unchanged rates for most of 2026. The split captures genuine uncertainty over whether the recovery or the inflation risk dominates.
