Skip to Content Subscribe Our Offers My Account Manage My Subscriptions FAQ Newsletters Canada Canadian True Crime Canadian Politics Health World Israel & Middle East Financial Post NP Comment Longreads Puzzmo Diversions Comics NP News Quiz New York Times Crossword Horoscopes Life Eating & Drinking Style Sponsored Play for Ontario Travel Travel Canada Travel USA Travel International Cruises Travel Essentials Culture Books Celebrity Movies Music Theatre Television Business Essentials Advice Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Buy Canadian Home Living Outdoor Living Tech Style & Beauty Kitchen & Dining Personal Care Entertainment & Hobbies Gift Guide Travel Guide Deals Savings National Post Store More Sports Hockey Baseball Basketball Football Soccer Golf Tennis Driving Vehicle Research Reviews News Gear Guide Obituaries Place an Obituary Place an In Memoriam Classifieds Place an Ad Celebrations Working Business Ads Archives Healthing Epaper Manage Print Subscription Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ Newsletters Canada World Financial Post NP Comment Longreads Puzzmo Diversions Life Shopping Epaper Manage Print Subscription HomeNP CommentRandall Denley: Ontario faces child-care chaos as Carney loses interest in backing Trudeau's $10 dreamThe blame will likely fall on Premier Doug Ford, as the popular prime minister points to progress in other provinces and billions already spent You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.Ontario is caught awkwardly between former prime minister Trudeau’s underfunded child-care ambitions and Carney’s child-care thrift, and the issue has some urgency, writes Randall Denley. Photo by NataliaDeriabina /Getty ImagesPrime Minister Mark Carney’s apparent indifference to his predecessor’s $10-a-day child-care program poses a big problem for the Ontario government. In Carney’s spring budget update, he offered no new money for the program and will let the capital fund that covered child-care expansion costs expire next year.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorCarney’s moves will leave the child-care plan well short of its objectives in Ontario without any real hope for improvement, barring an unlikely provincial decision to pour billions of dollars into Justin Trudeau’s day-care daydream.Ontario is caught awkwardly between former prime minister Trudeau’s underfunded child-care ambitions and Carney’s child-care thrift, and the issue has some urgency. While every other province except Alberta has a long-term child-care deal, Ontario does not. Federal operating dollars are only guaranteed until the end of March next year because the two sides have been unable to agree on money for a longer agreement.This newsletter from NP Comment tackles the topics you care about. (Subscriber-exclusive edition on Fridays)By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againOntario says it needs a deal in place by the beginning of September so child-care providers can plan.If an extension is not worked out, the whole child-care sector in Ontario could be thrown into chaos, dependent as it is on federal money to subsidize the actual costs of the program. If that happens, angry parents will be looking for someone to blame. It’s more likely to be Premier Doug Ford than the super-popular Carney. It will be easy for Carney to point to relative success in other provinces, talk about the billions of dollars the government has spent, and blame the Ontario government.That blame would be unjustified. From the outset, the Trudeau child-care plan was designed to fail. Unless the goal was solely to get votes, in which case it was a huge success. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visits a daycare at the Island Montessori Academy in Cornwall, P.E.I. in August 2023. Photo by Stu Neatby/PostmediaThe last thing the deficit-ridden Trudeau government should have considered was a new entitlement program, especially one that sat squarely in an area of provincial jurisdiction and in a sector with limited capacity to increase supply.Predictably, the issues that Ontario faces now are a mismatch between demand and supply and insufficient federal money to meet the goal of $10-a-day average cost.The demand surge was no surprise. Naturally, child care at bargain prices would boost demand from parents eager to get themselves a good deal. There was an unfortunate unintended consequence. As parents who had been paying full child-care costs rushed to join the new system, lower-income parents who had been using licensed child care got pushed out. Enrolment from that group dropped by 31 per cent compared to 2019, Ontario’s auditor general found.The imagined success of the federal program relied on Ontario’s ability to quickly produce thousands of early childhood educators (ECEs) to staff the expanded system. That hasn’t worked out.An analysis from the C.D. Howe Institute says that in Ontario more than 40 per cent of ECEs don’t work in child care. Many prefer jobs at school boards, which pay more. Turnover in the sector is high. At the end of 2023, there were more than 80,000 approved child-care spaces unstaffed because of shortages. More recent figures were unavailable.Ontario has higher real costs per child than other provinces do, but the federal funding formula doesn’t take that into account, making the $10-a-day goal hard to hit. In Ontario, the average daily fee is $19. Last year, the province’s auditor general estimated that it would require $2 billion more from the federal government this year to achieve the $10 goal.To put that in context, the federal government gave Ontario $4.56 billion for child care in 2025–26. The provincial government spent a further $1.68 billion.The child-care situation is particularly vexatious for the Ford government because it was never keen on the plan. It was the last province to sign on because of well-justified concern about its cost and sustainability.Ontario finally caved in when faced with the political impossibility of saying no to a nice-sounding plan that would boost child-care spending by billions of dollars.Now the Ford government has to contend with Carney, who has different priorities. The prime minister has been a bit slippery on this file. In the election held just over a year ago, he promised to “protect and strengthen” $10-a-day child care and add 100,000 additional spaces.Now that the vote gathering is complete, it’s easy to see why the usually rational Carney would lack enthusiasm for expanding the federal contribution to child care. The program never made sense.The problem is, what does he think is going to happen next? The feds have led parents to believe that they are entitled to super cheap child care, but not everyone gets it. An estimate by the province’s Financial Accountability Office predicted a gap between supply and demand of more than 200,000 spaces. That seems unfair.When the auditor general identified the $2-billion shortfall late last year, Ford said “We need the federal government to step up.” It’s time to reinforce the point.National Postrandalldenley1@gmail.com Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.