Donegal’s turnaround from also-rans in last year’s All-Ireland final to unstoppable force in this season’s Division One decider was remarkable. Their transformation was particularly impressive as both performances came against the same opposition. Kerry clinched Sam Maguire with a comprehensive 10-point winning margin in last July’s final. However, the tables were turned in emphatic fashion when the counties met again at Croke Park in March. Jack O’Connor’s men lost the Division One final by 13 points, but the final scoreline – 3-20 to 2-10 – only told half the story. In reality, the margin of defeat flattered Kerry. The game was over as a contest by the 55th minute, with the scoreline reading 3-19 to 1-4. The Kingdom made things look more presentable with some late scores after their opponents took their foot off the gas.The two most fancied teams in the country renew their rivalry in the first round of the All-Ireland on Saturday afternoon. They will be keenly studying what caused this massive shift from one final to the other.It must be noted, of course, that there is a world of difference between a League final and a season-defining All-Ireland final. But even so.Kerry will definitely feel they were understrength two months ago, with Paudie Clifford among a number of crucial men missing in that encounter. Five Kerry players started the league final who had no part in their All-Ireland-clinching performance last year.Kerry missed Paudie Clifford in the league final against Donegal. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho Shane Murphy replaced the injured Shane Ryan in goal, Armin Heinrich and Tom O’Sullivan came in at half back, Liam Smith at midfield and Keith Evans started at corner forward. Meanwhile, 12 of Donegal’s starting line-up in the league final played in their All-Ireland defeat last July. Gavin Mulreany took over from Shaun Patton in goal, while youngsters Shea Malone and Max Campbell added to the mix. For Donegal, the main difference between both matches was not in personnel, but in the players’ roles. Seven players from the All-Ireland final team adopted new roles in the league decider. Jason McGee and Hugh McFadden - substitutes in 2025 - started in midfield. Michael Langan advanced to centre forward and his previous midfield partner, Caolan McGonagle, shifted to centre back. Meanwhile, Caolan McColgan and Eoghan Bán Gallagher came back a line to play as corner backs, with Peadar Mogan rocketed forward from corner back to a roving role at half forward. That change at the back seemed to work, as David Clifford was held to 1-1, compared to the 0-9 he racked up at Croke Park last July.In both finals, the team with more possession won. Taking longer over attacks and hand-passing was also a feature of the winning teams from both games. In the league final, Donegal had the ball for well over twice as long as Kerry, with an average possession lasting 61 seconds, compared to Kerry’s 31 seconds.In 2025, those figures were reversed, with the Kingdom’s possessions lasting an average of 14 seconds longer than Donegal’s. Kerry hand-passed the ball 129 times more than Donegal in that final (307 to 178). However, in the league decider, they trailed their rivals on this metric by 228. While Kerry kick-passed more than Donegal on both occasions, they did so 20 times fewer in March. This highlights both the lack of space afforded to Kerry’s forwards and the lack of incision in that forward line without Paudie Clifford.Despite the introduction of two giants – McGee and McFadden – at midfield, Donegal actually struggled more on their own long kickouts this year. They had more success when Mulreany went short off the tee. Mark O’Shea was critical for Kerry in winning their own kickout in that game, but Donegal did well to force Shane Murphy to always go long – winning nearly half of the Kingdom’s distance efforts.Kerry’s shooting was the difference-maker in the All-Ireland final, but it was completely off in the league final. Their two-point efforts fell from five scores out of 14 attempts last July to just one from eight. They also passed up three goal opportunities. Meanwhile, Donegal, who managed no two-pointers from a paltry three attempts in the 2025 decider, kicked four from seven attempts in the second match. These scores came through the two Michaels, Murphy and Langan.Jason McGee started in midfield for Donegal in their comprehensive league final victory against Kerry. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho What does any of that mean for this weekend? Unfortunately, we could be looking at a lot of possession-heavy play. That seems to have been the critical factor in both victories, allowing the winner of each contest to control the flow of the game. Donegal hand-passed the ball laterally or backwards over 270 times in the league final, which isn’t usually an indicator of a thriller for the neutrals.The landscape has changed somewhat since that performance, as Donegal fell to a big upset at home to Down in their Ulster opener. It should be acknowledged that Down’s performance was the culmination of several years of improvement, with their obvious potential finally delivering a major result. Donegal will have learned a lot from their own sub-standard performance against Down. They have had three weeks since the All-Ireland draw to prepare solely for Kerry and build themselves back up from the Ulster disappointment. Kerry, on the other hand, took home the Munster title yet again, looking good despite the absence of key players like Shane Ryan, Seán O’Shea and Paul Murphy.This Saturday may not be the counties’ last meeting this year. With that in mind, trump cards may yet be held in reserve. While the game once again looks set up to be an even, rip-roaring contest on paper, that script has already been torn up twice before – with possession-heavy hammerings meted out by both sides on both occasions.