OPEC+ is set to discuss another oil output increase of 188,000 barrels per day at its June 7 meeting. Oil remains above $100 per barrel, and the gap between what these countries are allowed to produce and what they actually pump has never been wider.
This would mark the group’s fourth consecutive monthly adjustment to production targets, a cadence that began after the UAE’s departure from OPEC+ on May 1. The remaining members, including heavyweight producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, are trying to project coordination even as real-world supply constraints make these quota changes largely symbolic.
The numbers behind the noise
Saudi Arabia’s quota rose to 10.291 million bpd following the May 3 decision. Its actual output in March? Just 7.76 million bpd. That’s a gap of roughly 2.5 million barrels per day between what Riyadh is technically permitted to produce and what it’s actually sending to market.
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia each contributed approximately 62,000 bpd to the May increase. The remaining producers in the group, which includes Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, split the rest.
