Analysis

Key Facts

Mexico drew a record $40.9 billion in foreign direct investment in just the first three quarters of 2025 — up 14.5% year-on-year and already past the full-year 2024 record.

Over the same stretch, manufacturing employment fell by 127,200 — the worst result since 2008 — and factory payrolls have now declined for 35 consecutive months.

The economy grew just 0.6% in 2025, its weakest since the pandemic, and 2026 forecasts cluster at a modest 1.5–1.8%.