Analysis
Key Facts
The recovery is real and measured: Argentina’s GDP grew 4.4% in 2025, annual inflation fell from a 211% peak toward 33%, poverty dropped to 28.2% — the lowest since 2018 — and the government has run a primary fiscal surplus in 14 of the last 15 months.
The bond market still prices doubt. A dollar bond maturing in 2028, after Milei’s term, yields 8.9% — nearly double the 5.1% on a comparable bond maturing in 2027, before he leaves. That 380-basis-point gap is the market’s verdict on whether the reforms outlast him.
Disinflation has stalled. Monthly inflation is stuck near 2.9%, far above the government’s 10.1% annual target, and the Iran-Hormuz oil shock has added an estimated 0.8–0.9 points of annual inflation.
