Solar is on track to become the world’s largest generator of electricity by 2032, a major new forecast reveals, riding the wave of falling prices and manufacturing oversupply, and bolstered by a booming battery storage market and the third global energy shock in a decade.
The BloombergNEF (BNEF) New Energy Outlook for 2026, published on Tuesday, finds the global market “much changed” since last year’s edition, as the transition to renewable energy, battery storage and electrification has a rocket put under it by the latest Middle East conflict.
“Whether the global economic order is fracturing or merely shuddering remains to be seen. That said, the fragility of today’s fossil energy-delivery system is not in doubt,” the report says.
“In March 2026, countries heavily reliant on Persian Gulf fuels saw energy costs surge and the risk of physical shortages rise, setting off energy security alarm bells in capitals across the globe.”
The immediate and longer-term effects of this are reflected in BNEF’s updated Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), which maps out how the global energy system is most likely to evolve over the next decade and through 2050.
