The near-complete stoppage of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a supply shock that in the industry was always hypothesized as a worst-case nightmare, but has in reality come true — is creating ever-deeper holes in oil balances that, the longer it continues, will prolong a return to normalcy. When the strait can reopen is as unclear now as it was in early March when the US-Israel attacks on Iran began. The standoff remains at an impasse, and only the occasional oil or LNG tanker has been able to pass. Estimates of how long it will take for a restoration of flows once the strait reopens vary widely, but there is a consensus that this will require months, especially for refined products, as refinery restarts can be drawn out affairs, even during normal times, and operators have to carry out repairs.