Regardless of its outcome, the Iran war is already having a dangerous impact on the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa. It has upped the ante in an already contested area, at once increasing its importance and further polarizing the competing actors. It has exacerbated the fundamental differences between the rival blocs, driving a battle for resources and influence that had already destabilized the Arabian and African sides of the Red Sea for years.
The humanitarian and geopolitical stakes are evidently high. For the United States, a regional conflict threatens the partnerships that underpin U.S. interests, from Iran to counterterrorism to major economic investments worth billions of dollars. As Horn countries increasingly find themselves becoming battlegrounds, Europe, which regards the region as a strategic area for trade, migration, and terrorism, will also struggle.
Regardless of its outcome, the Iran war is already having a dangerous impact on the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa. It has upped the ante in an already contested area, at once increasing its importance and further polarizing the competing actors. It has exacerbated the fundamental differences between the rival blocs, driving a battle for resources and influence that had already destabilized the Arabian and African sides of the Red Sea for years.
