PremiumAs we approach the start of summer demand season, a new consensus is emerging that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June just because the cost of continued closure will be too high with midterms approaching fast. Indeed, Goldman's economic team is working under the baseline assumption of a Hormuz Strait reopening that starts soon and finishes in late June (full note here for pro subs) which keeps Brent prices stable in the near term and edging down to $90/barrel by year-end (the bank concedes that "risks remain tilted toward more adverse outcomes, higher oil prices, and greater economic damage.")
Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June
"magical thinking" is minimizing the enormous mechanical challenges in restoring flows to pre-February 27 levels, as there is no readily available wand to turn back the clock.
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