It is interesting that Chinese supremo Xi Jinping should invoke the “Thucydides Trap” during Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, indirectly suggesting that the US should not fret too much about China’s rise and instead seek to partner with it.
The Thucydides Trap, which is attributed to fifth century BCE Greek historian Thucydides, who sought to understand the underlying causes behind the Peloponnesian war between Athens and Sparta, posits that when a new power rises, the existing power feels threatened and war is often the result. Thucydides believed that the primary cause of the war was Sparta’s fears over Athens’ rise,The joke, assuming Xi can take one, is on him. It is not just the USA, but China as well that is likely to fall into the Thucydides trap – assuming it has not already fallen into one – when it sees India’s rise. While India’s rise is nowhere near the level at which China needs to feel threatened, it is already beginning to take note, and making sure that India’s rise is slowed down. Its backing for Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, and its efforts to intimidate India on the borders during the 2020 Galwan clashes, at a time when the country was battling covid, suggests that Xi should be re-reading Thucydides. He should be making the necessary mental adjustments to accommodate India’s rise without actual war, proxy war or corporate strangleholds that ultimately stifle global growth.
