In the muddled California gubernatorial race, Democrats are simultaneously growing more confident and more uncertain.
Compared with just weeks ago, Democrats are far more optimistic they will avoid a one-two GOP finish in the June primary that would ensure a Republican governor next year in the nation’s biggest blue state.
But at the same time, they have even less clarity about which of their party’s candidates is most likely to crack the top two and proceed to the general election, where any Democrat will be a prohibitive favorite over any Republican. Democratic strategists generally agree that self-funding billionaire Tom Steyer has the inside track — but might still be overtaken.
This rapid reconfiguration of the race is the result of two seismic jolts that seem unrelated, but have had an unexpectedly reinforcing effect.
The first was President Donald Trump’s perplexing decision to endorse Republican Steve Hilton on April 6. Trump’s move increased the odds that Hilton would pull away from his GOP rival Chad Bianco, but diminished the chances they would evenly split the limited GOP primary vote, which is the only way they could finish one-two in the June primary and block Democrats from the ballot in November.
