Democrats' 2026 comeback could be spoiled by California electing a Republican governor, as two GOP candidates are leading in recent polls.
Experts forecast a potential "blue wave" in the midterm elections, as Democrats have recently overperformed in special elections, including flipping a state senate seat in President Donald Trump's own Palm Beach, Florida, district on March 24.
But the party is facing a nightmare scenario in the nation's most populous state, where polling shows Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading the pack in the June 2 nonpartisan primary. The state's liberal majority is split among eight Democratic contenders.
The Democrats' dilemma stems from California's unusual election system, in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. A Berkley ISG survey released March 18 of more than 5,000 registered voters showed Hilton, a conservative TV host, receiving 17% of the vote while Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, held 16%.
In third was Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, with 14%, then former Rep. Katie Porter holding 13%, followed by Tom Steyer at 10% and the five other Democratic candidates each getting 5% or less.
