Eric Swalwell at a campaign rally in Sacramento, California, April 7, 2026. RICH PEDRONCELLI/AP
What if California's next governor is a Republican? The idea might sound far-fetched within this Democratic stronghold – one that has been floated as a potential launching pad for reclaiming the White House, notably with the outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom ineligible for a third term. Yet, the notion is no laughing matter for the American left, as the prospect of a Republican governor – who would be the first since Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011) – is becoming increasingly plausible.
Democrats are facing setbacks: One of its frontrunners, Congressman Eric Swalwell, dropped out on April 12 after being accused of sexually assaulting a former staff member and of sending intimate photos to several women. He is also suspected of having hired a Brazilian nanny whom he paid with campaign funds, and whose work permit had expired. Party leaders abandoned him in the wake of these allegations.
California's unique primary rules only further complicate things, as the state holds nonpartisan primaries that function much like the first round of a French election. The system does not guarantee that either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party will have a candidate in the general election on November 3, 2026. All contenders – Democrats, Republicans and others – compete in the June 2 primary, and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, qualify for the November election. With Democrats divided among a crowded field of 23 candidates, there is a real risk that their vote will be split, potentially paving the way for two Republicans to emerge as finalists.
