US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday night that it would halt its attacks against Iran until the regime can submit a “unified proposal” to discuss during negotiations, but Polymarket's prediction market still sees low chances for the ceasefire to be extended by Wednesday.
According to the platform's Iran section, there is a 20% chance that the ceasefire will be extended by April 22, with users not considering the current situation an official extension of the ceasefire.
Polymarket is a betting platform that claims to be a "prediction market," where people can bet on the result of a future event. The platform creates a situation, and users can bet on whether it will happen, with the "chance" of it happening determined by how many people bought the "yes" option versus the "no" option.
In its Iran section, Polymarket currently has several active bets, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the official end of Operation Epic Fury, and the possibility of the Islamic regime collapsing.
Main predictions currently in Polymarket
