Not that long ago, U.S. payroll growth of less than 100,000 or so a month meant the labor market was sinking and signaling a potential recession. No more, though, as that kind of number is pretty much all that is needed to keep unemployment steady and the Federal Reserve at bay.
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its job count for April on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, it’s expected to show a gain of just 55,000 — anemic compared to what the economy has seen in recent years, but enough to keep the jobless rate at a relatively low 4.3%.
The picture in total is one of a labor market that, while undoubtedly cooling, is generally stable and resilient despite a number of challenges.
“The headline message remains similar to previous employment reports, if anything, accentuated though,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute. “The labor market momentum in terms of payrolls has really turned solid.”
The degree of stability, though, is in relative terms.
