The U.S. labor market likely showed modest improvement in December, providing some encouragement for the year ahead but nothing to get too excited about.
Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 73,000 last month while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.5%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
If those numbers are near accurate, it would represent a slight step up from the 55,000 average monthly gain during the prior 11 months of 2025 and would be a bit better than the initially reported 64,000 for November. The jobless rate is half a percentage point above where it was at the start of last year.
Heading into 2026, most economists see a labor market far from stellar, but at least stable.
“The year is ending stronger than it started,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at Adecco Staffing. “We’ve seen some positivity, both in terms of hiring as well as [a] slow down of layoffs. So [the market is] looking pretty positive going into 2026. I think it’ll be the year of stability.”
