A few months ago, the prevailing thinking in Washington was that while Republicans could lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections, their Senate majority was secure.
To win control of the Senate, Democrats would need to upset four GOP incumbents, including in some states where President Donald Trump sailed to victory in 2024 by double digit margins.
But a strong candidate recruitment effort, coupled with significant fundraising and Trump's declining popularity and his base's infighting, have given them a credible chance of pulling it off.
Democratic Senate contenders are leading or statistically tied, according to recent polls, for seats held by Republicans in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.
The increasingly sour national environment for Republicans and rising optimism for Democrats, experts say, comes down to one thing: Trump's tanking poll numbers.
