The big hurdle for Democrats’ Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.
They needed to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. It wasn’t even clear they could put that many red states in play.
Now, polls increasingly suggest they have put more than enough of those states in play. But other hurdles that complicate their majority math have cropped up — creating an incredibly complex and high-stakes battle to control the Senate come 2027.
The good news for Democrats: Recent, early high-quality polling suggests red states are competitive. The bad news for the party: That might not be sufficient.
In Texas, a Fox News poll Friday showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 51% among registered voters to state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 48%. It’s merely the latest to show the race close to even.
