ToplineDespite a 6–3 ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court striking down Louisiana’s 2024 congressional map, a decision that could improve Republicans’ electoral positioning, prediction markets still overwhelmingly expect Democrats to win control of the House in November. WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 20: An exterior view of the Supreme Court on June 20, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Supreme Court is about to issue rulings on a variety of high profile cases dealing with abortion rights, gun rights, and former President Donald Trump's immunity claim, putting the court at the center of many hot political topics during an election year. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)Getty ImagesKey FactsPrediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have combined seen roughly $13 million in bets placed on which party will control the House after the midterm elections in November.Polymarket shows about an 85% chanceDemocrats will win control the House, while Kalshi shows 83% odds of Democrats gaining control of the chamber.The Supreme Court’s decision could allow Republican-led states to dismantle majority Black and Latino districts that have historically leaned Democratic.Key Background: The court ruled Louisiana’s congressional map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, siding with a group of non-Black voters who argued the state relied too heavily on race when drawing district lines. The map had created a second majority-Black district in a state where roughly one-third of residents are Black. The decision follows years of legal battles under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, particularly Section 2, which is designed to prevent minority vote dilution. A federal court had previously found Louisiana’s 2022 map—containing only one majority-Black district—may have violated the law, prompting lawmakers to draw a new map in 2024. Similar legal fights are unfolding elsewhere. In Florida, lawmakers approved a new congressional map backed by Republican leadership that dismantled a previously Black-majority district and could add several Republican-leaning seats. The push for mid-decade redistricting is largely unprecedented in modern American politics, and comes as President Donald Trump has urged Republican states to redraw maps to protect the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. This has led to a response from some Democratic-led states, where maps have been redrawn in an attempt to counteract Republican efforts to create more GOP-friendly districts. Crucial Quote: “Today's 6-3 Supreme Court decision in the Callais case is a BIG WIN for Equal Protection under the Law,” President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday afternoon. “Thank you to brilliant Justice Samuel Alito for authoring this important and appropriate Opinion. Congratulations!”