April 8 (UPI) -- Brazil is heading toward a highly competitive presidential election, with a statistical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, amid concerns over possible U.S. influence and geopolitical tensions tied to critical minerals.
A poll by consulting firm IDEIA, conducted April 3-7 with 1,500 respondents, shows Lula with 45.5% support in a runoff scenario, compared with 45.8% for Bolsonaro, a difference within the 2.5 percentage point margin of error.
Bora pra cima! A batalha está só no começo e ainda temos uma longa jornada e muito trabalho pela frente. A nossa união será a derrota da esquerda! pic.twitter.com/WhyLcN8C43— Flávio Bolsonaro (@FlavioBolsonaro) April 8, 2026
The survey points to an open race six months ahead of the October presidential vote.
IDEIA said the electorate remains unstable. About 51.4% of respondents said they could change their vote before the election and the survey introduced an unusual geopolitical dimension. Some 9.1% identified foreign influence as one of the main threats to Brazil's democracy.
