Tax refunds are supposed to be huge this year, but many Americans may find theirs isn’t one of them, some analysts said.
At the start of tax season, the White House said 2026 would see the "biggest tax refund season ever," with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more due to President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending bill passed last summer. Refunds were supposed to get a boost from an increased standard deduction and new provisions such as no tax on tips, overtime and auto loan interest for certain cars as well as a new senior deduction.
Tax season isn’t over so refund amounts may move higher but so far, the average tax refund has been much smaller than predicted. As of the week ending March 20, average tax refunds were up 10.9%, or just a few hundred dollars, to $3,571 from $3,221 from the same time last year, IRS data shows.
"If you’re questioning why your tax refund is so low, you’re not the only one," according to H&R Block’s tax blog. "Many taxpayers who have filed their tax return are wondering the same thing."
Explanations vary, with H&R Block suggesting some reasons for smaller-than-expected refunds could be:
