With the federal tax deadline less than one month away, tax refunds are higher on average compared to last year, but the change has been smaller than some early projections.
In a January release, the White House said average tax refunds could increase “by $1,000 or more,” citing several media reports with early October research from investment bank Piper Sandler.
So far, the average payment change has been smaller than that $1,000 estimate, according to IRS filing season data.
As of Mar. 6, the average tax refund was $3,676, up from $3,324 around the same time last year, the IRS reported last week. That figure is based on about 60.7 million individual returns out of the 164 million expected through the April 15 deadline.
This season, your tax refund or balance due could depend on several factors, including which new tax breaks impact your situation, your 2025 paycheck withholdings, plus income and life changes, experts say.
