Many Americans could see bigger tax refunds during the 2026 filing season based on changes from President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” But just how much is a matter of debate.
Enacted in July, Trump’s legislation added several tax breaks for 2025 and the IRS did not adjust paycheck withholdings. As a result, many workers overpaid taxes and will be refunded when filing 2025 returns, experts say.
In 2026, average tax refunds could increase “by $1,000 or more,” the White House said in a release this week. The release cited several media reports that reference early October research from Piper Sandler. That note said Trump’s “retroactive tax cuts could average about $1,000 per return though it will be substantially more for some filers.”
The White House release also included a graphic with January data from the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit think tank, showing estimated average refunds could be $3,800, up $748 from $3,052 for tax year 2024.
In 2026, $200 billion more will go out for tax refunds, Frank Bisignano, Social Security Administration Commissioner and IRS CEO, told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Wednesday.
