The IRS kicked off the 2026 tax season Monday, and filers will see changes from President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” that could affect their 2025 returns.
About 164 million individual tax returns are expected before the April 15 deadline, and many could receive bigger tax refunds after Trump’s 2025 legislation, experts say.
“The size of refunds is a major political topic” with the 2026 midterm election approaching, Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, told reporters during a call on Thursday.
Typically, a refund or balance due depends on taxes paid the previous year via paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. In 2025, the average refund for individual filers was $3,052 through Oct. 17, according to the IRS.
“There are a lot of things that are likely to drive higher refunds [during the 2026] filing season,” including 2025 tax cuts and withholdings, Lautz said.
