When the Supreme Court ordered last year that the case of Louisiana v. Callais be re-argued, it raised a potential nightmare scenario: If the court ruled the Voting Rights Act is unconstitutional when applied to redistricting or otherwise gutted it, it could enable Southern states to decimate Black voters’ power, eliminating up to 19 House seats currently held by Black Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms.
But that scenario rested on a decision gutting the Voting Rights Act coming soon after the court heard the re-argument on Oct. 15. And it didn’t happen — at least, it hasn’t yet. A decision hasn’t been released, and at this point, the earliest it could come is late March. That will be too late for almost all Southern states to redraw their maps if the court rules as expected and guts the Voting Rights Act.
“We’re at the point where it’s functionally impossible for most Southern states to redraw their maps, unless they do something extraordinary like move or redo primaries,” said Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center for Justice, a progressive nonprofit.
It’s a simple matter of calendars. In some states, primaries have already happened. In others, deadlines to finalize and print ballots and then send them out to military and overseas voters are coming up fast.
