A quick landgrab has distorted into a complex geopolitical conflict – and even Trump’s fulminations can’t seem to make Ukrainians give in
Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine entered its fifth year on 24 February, with no end in sight despite Russia’s vast material superiority.
Most experts expected Ukraine’s defeat within days. Russia’s population is more than three times Ukraine’s, its GDP around 10 times bigger, its army far larger, its arsenal of tanks, artillery, missiles and warplanes greater. Russia’s leadership, Putin included, expected Ukrainians to capitulate, perhaps even to welcome Russian troops. US and British intelligence predicted the war early, but also projected a rapid Russian victory.
Ukraine’s strong morale is one reason it has belied early doomsday predictions. Its army has suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities, but retains the will to fight. Russia has reportedly suffered twice as many casualties: 1.2 million, including 219,000 deaths verified through obituaries and probate records. According to some estimates, fatalities total 325,000. Geolocated tallies show that roughly 24,000 pieces of Russian equipment have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned or seized. No one expected such losses, least of all Putin.
