Tariff refund checks? Maybe not. But consumers could get money back.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down many of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs in a Feb. 20 ruling, talk of refunds has echoed across the country.

Those tariffs equated to a tax increase of roughly $1,000 per American household in 2025, according to a Feb. 23 report from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

Now, can consumers expect to get most of that money back?

We asked several tariff experts, and the answer was a resounding “No.”

Here’s the problem: However much those tariffs cost American households, consumers didn’t pay the taxes themselves. Importers paid them. Many parties ultimately absorbed their cost, including exporters, importers, wholesalers, retailers and, yes, consumers.