The Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s tariffs has created a $180 billion opportunity for U.S. companies to recoup the cost of import taxes through potential refunds. For American consumers, however, the chances of seeing relief are slim.
Goldman Sachs economists warned that while tariff-related inflation has likely peaked, prices are unlikely to meaningfully fall anytime soon. Tariffs added a 0.7% increase in inflation over 10 months, and levies are expected to add another 0.1% in 2026, analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
“We would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff reductions nearly as quickly as they increased them in response to tariff increases,” analysts Alec Phillips, Elsie Peng, and David Mericle wrote.
Tariffs were a massive pain point for U.S. consumers in 2025, contributing to the lowest levels of consumer confidence in 11 years, and fueling concerns over a K-shaped economy, in which lower-income Americans struggle to afford goods while wealthier households continue to spend. Data from the Federal Reserve of New York published earlier this month confirmed Americans were bearing the brunt of the tariff impact, with 90% of the levies being passed down to U.S. companies and consumers.
