“Life is like a box of chocolates,” Forrest Gump memorably told us. “You never know what you're gonna get.”
Yet Valentine’s Day is one day that simply demands a box of the sweet stuff: 92% of Americans hope to receive chocolate for the holiday, and if they think they’re not gonna get it on their own, about half plan to treat themselves, according to the National Confectioners Association (NCA), even as prices for chocolate remain elevated thanks to persistent inflation throughout the candy supply chain.
An unprecedented spike in prices in 2025 took chocolate prices up 12% for U.S. brands, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. That’s because West Africa, where about 70% of the world’s cocoa is produced, continues to struggle with weather issues, disease, and aging tree stock.
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Producer prices have dropped since, but it will take a while for those declines to work their way through the supply chain to the inventory that consumers shop. David Branch, sector manager for the Wells Fargo institute, expects it to be mid-2026 when those lower prices hit the shelves.
