As Iran’s future hangs in the balance as civil unrest gathers steam, its powerful ally Russia can do little but watch and wait as the U.S. ponders its next move against the Islamic Republic.
U.S. President Donald Trump has not ruled out using military strikes against the conservative religious regime that has ruled Iran since 1979. On Tuesday, he repeated that threat, warning the U.S. would take “very strong action” if Iran executed arrested protestors. Trump has already said any country doing business with Iran would be hit with a 25% tariff.
Russia will be focused on how events unfold in Iran given Tehran’s position as a key strategic, military, economic and trade partner for Moscow in the Middle East.
The prospect of another ally falling in the Middle East will be a worrying one for Moscow, particularly after it has seen its alliances with Venezuela, Syria, and the Caucasus upended recently, denting its power and influence abroad.
“Moscow sees the potential loss of Iran as a much more significant risk to both its regional national posture than it saw the loss of Syria, Venezuela, or arguably its influence in Armenia over the last few years,” Max Hess, founder of political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, told CNBC Tuesday.
