While some in Moscow have tried to put positive spin on Israel’s assault, Kremlin risks losing key strategic partner

When a group of Russian and Iranian foreign policy officials arranged to meet in Moscow for a conference titled “Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world”, they probably did not anticipate just how timely that phrase would turn out to be.

Seated around a table on Wednesday at the President hotel near the Kremlin, officials from both sides were forced to confront a stark new reality: Iran’s regime – a key ally of Moscow – is facing its most serious threat in decades.

As Israel and Donald Trump demand Tehran’s “unconditional surrender”, Moscow is growing increasingly anxious about the fate of Iran, while tacitly acknowledging its limited ability to influence the unfolding events.

Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia-Iran ties, said: “It has long been clear that Russia wouldn’t defend Iran militarily, because it is simply not prepared to risk a confrontation with Israel and the United States for Iran’s sake.”