Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela
Prediction market disputes US raid amounted to an invasion in fight over more than $10.5mn in wagers
Prediction market disputes US raid amounted to an invasion in fight over more than $10.5mn in wagers

High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets

Member of military was involved in planning Venezuela operation and allegedly made $400,000 on trades about mission

Site known for bets on political predictions could soon create and host all manner of markets

FT analysis identifies 12 accounts on platform that made large well-timed wagers just ahead of start of conflict

Conducting foreign policy, let alone war, by meme is dangerous and foolish

Fights over regulation could reshape the US federal system of government