The big state gamble on prediction markets
Fights over regulation could reshape the US federal system of government
Fights over regulation could reshape the US federal system of government

Prediction markets are the latest example of a disruptive new industry smacking into problems incumbents have long understood

Value of bets soars from $100mn to $13bn a month

They offer a troubling opportunity to manipulate public perceptions of the outcome of political events

Insider bets, low liquidity and regulatory gaps complicate efforts to turn wagers into financial tools

Site known for bets on political predictions could soon create and host all manner of markets

Financial gamification has upended traditional patterns of trust and oversight