Betting on risk changes the world
Prediction markets are the latest example of a disruptive new industry smacking into problems incumbents have long understood
Related reading
Betting on prediction markets has exploded over past two years
Value of bets soars from $100mn to $13bn a month
Prediction markets and the casino mentality of 2025
Financial gamification has upended traditional patterns of trust and oversight
The uses and abuses of prediction markets
Insider bets, low liquidity and regulatory gaps complicate efforts to turn wagers into financial tools
The big state gamble on prediction markets
Fights over regulation could reshape the US federal system of government
The failures of prediction markets are predictable
They can send wrong signals when trading is illiquid or when herd behaviour takes hold
There is method in the market’s madness
But it relies on a host of rosy assumptions going in investors’ favour