Prediction market traders ramped up bets that more international shake-ups may lie ahead in the wake of President Donald Trump’s raid on Venezuela.
Traders on the burgeoning platforms have recently committed money based on where the White House might turn its focus next. The amped up bets come as Wall Street and Main Street note the Trump administration’s shift toward quick and forceful international strikes.
“The big takeaway for investors is Trump is growing much more comfortable with, and confident in, the use of military force,” Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote to clients on Monday. “His first year in his second term was characterized by boundless energy and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the use of the military.”
Odds that Trump will “take back” the Panama Canal before early 2029 on the Kalshi prediction market jumped above 35%, from less than 30% late last week. Trump said last year that he wouldn’t rule out using military force to gain control of the maritime route linking the Pacific to the Atlantic.
The likelihood that the U.S. will “take control” of Greenland rose to 38% midday Tuesday — an increase of roughly eight percentage points since the middle of last week. At one point over the weekend, the odds shot above 46%.
