The president may not be benefiting directly from betting markets, but he has encouraged a culture that treats politics like a casino floor
O
dd things are happening in the markets. Last Monday, 15 minutes before Donald Trump posted an announcement that “productive talks” with Iran had taken place, oil traders placed half a billion dollars’ worth of bets on the future price of oil. Trump’s statement triggered a drop in crude oil prices, and it seems as if some people knew that the announcement was coming, and so a profitable wager was made. Do not be envious; some people are just born lucky.
We do not know if the transactions were made with prior knowledge of political developments, but it’s a hell of a coincidence. It all appears “abnormal for sure”, an oil analyst told the BBC.
The suspiciously timed trades, if they were indeed placed through insider knowledge, would be only a part of a broader betting bonanza that reduces political outcomes to windfall-making opportunities. Take Polymarket, an online prediction market that took off in the early 2020s and allows you to bet on anything from the result of the Super Bowl, to whether Trump is going to invade another country.
