London predicted to be the first UK city to go diesel-free, largely because of the ultra-low emission zone

Battery electric cars are poised to overtake diesels on Great Britain’s roads by 2030, according to analysis that suggests London will be the first UK city to go diesel-free.

The number of diesel cars on Great Britain’s roads in June had fallen to 9.9m in June last year, 21% below its peak of 12.4m vehicles, according to analysis by New AutoMotive, a thinktank focused on the transition to electric cars. Electric car sales are still growing rapidly, albeit more slowly than manufacturers had expected.

However, the transition to cleaner vans is lagging behind cars, and the number of diesel vans has continued to rise, to a record 4.4m.

The UK went through a “dash for diesel” cars in the 2000s as the government granted them cheaper tax rates. Diesel engines tend to be more efficient than petrol engines, burning less fuel and producing less carbon dioxide.