Electric vehicle maker also predicts future sales will miss Elon Musk’s ambitious targets

Tesla has taken the unusual step of publishing sales forecasts that suggest that 2025 deliveries will be lower than expected and future years’ sales will be well below targets set by its chief executive, Elon Musk.

The US electric vehicle maker published figures from analysts suggesting it will announce 423,000 deliveries during the fourth quarter of 2025, in a new “consensus” section on its investor website. That would represent a 16% decline from the final quarter of 2024.

The estimates suggested that Tesla would deliver 1.64m cars in 2025 as a whole, down from 1.79m in 2024. Deliveries are then estimated to rise to 1.75m in 2026 and 3m in 2029.

Musk claimed at a shareholder meeting in November that the company was aiming to produce 4m cars a year by the end of 2027.