Tesla released its company-compiled delivery consensus for the second quarter of 2026, and Wall Street analysts now expect the automaker to deliver 406,024 vehicles.
That would be just 5.7% growth over the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q2 2025 — a modest recovery for a company that has posted two consecutive years of declining sales.
What the consensus says
The figures come from Tesla’s own investor relations page, where the company periodically publishes a consensus it compiles from sell-side analysts. The Q2 2026 estimate was drawn from 22 analysts, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wedbush, Barclays, and UBS.
Tesla is careful to note that it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts.” The Q1 2026 figures in the table are actuals, while everything from Q2 2026 onward is consensus estimate.
