The 2025 WNBA Finals feature a desert duel that few would have predicted at the start of the season. The Las Vegas Aces are making their third WNBA Finals appearance in four years and eyeing a third title over that span. The Phoenix Mercury are back in the finals for the first time since 2021. They feature only two returning players from last year’s team, as the era of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner has given way to a Big Three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper.The Mercury and Aces met four times during the regular season, in which the Aces collected three wins — two as part of their 16-game winning streak before the playoffs. The Mercury’s lone win in June was when the Aces were without A’ja Wilson. Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season now, achieving a level of consistency that Las Vegas has not matched during the postseason.
See you Friday.
WNBA Finals | @YouTubeTV pic.twitter.com/BMWkd9TbuB
— WNBA (@WNBA) October 1, 2025
Both squads are led by a frontcourt MVP candidate and loaded with star power, including a trio of 2024 Olympians in the starting lineups. Although the 2025 WNBA Finals matchup would have been unexpected back in May, and even at the start of the playoffs, there is plenty of intrigue.Who has the edge? We’re breaking down the finals and giving our predictions:How does Las Vegas’ offense match up with Phoenix’s defense?Las Vegas ORTG: 105.9 points per 100 possessionsPhoenix DRTG: 100.4The Aces have the best player in the world in Wilson, and the Mercury don’t have a great answer for her one-on-one. Thomas and center Natasha Mack are a little too small to deal with Wilson, even if they have the strength. A great individual defender isn’t necessarily enough, as the Indiana Fever learned in their semifinals matchup with Las Vegas; even with Fever center Aliyah Boston doing yeoman’s work on Wilson, the four-time WNBA MVP still averaged 24 points and 9.4 rebounds. Phoenix was flexible with its matchups against Las Vegas in the regular season, as Thomas guarded everyone from guard Chelsea Gray to Wilson. The Mercury can even stash Thomas on Kierstan Bell and have her roam, though that’s more problematic when guards Jewell Loyd or Dana Evans are in the game. But if Wilson gets the ball in the middle of the floor, she can cleanly shoot over any Phoenix defender.Four-time All-Star guard Jackie Young is coming off a strong series against the Fever (21.4 points and six assists per game), though she was less prolific against the Mercury defense during the regular season. Phoenix rookie guard Monique Akoa Makani is strong at the point of attack and navigates screens well, preventing Young from consistently getting a straight line to the rim. When Akoa Makani goes to the bench, she passes the assignment off to Copper, who Aces coach Becky Hammon called one of the best two-way guards in the league (alongside Young, of course). Young will get her points — it’s a matter of how efficient she is in the process. That makes this an important series for Gray. Phoenix’s first priority is to protect the paint, so that could leave the midrange open for Gray, where she excels.
